Convective Outlook: Tue 11 Feb 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:25 UTC Mon 10 Feb 2020


Strong west-northwesterly flow covers the British Isles with significantly cold air aloft, originating from Canada. This will result in an environment with very steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-700 J/kg CAPE. Consequently, numerous showers will develop over open waters and plough inland on strong steering winds, merging to give longer spells of rain (and snow) at times as organised troughs and occlusions swing through in the flow. The greatest risk of some sporadic lightning will be over open waters and near western coasts. Shear will be strongest across Ireland and central/southern Britain, which will aid in lightning potential despite more limited convective depth / weaker instability here. Some organisation of cells will be possible, with strong gusts of wind and perhaps scope for a low-topped supercell. Many of the showers will contain hail.