Convective Outlook: Thu 13 Feb 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 13 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 14 Feb 2020

ISSUED 20:55 UTC Wed 12 Feb 2020


An upper low will drift eastwards across the British Isles on Thursday, the associated cold pool aloft creating an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-500J/kg CAPE. Line segments along the cold front over the eastern English Channel and SE England will clear/weaken through the morning, but a plethora of showers already over Ireland, Wales and SW England will swing eastwards through the day, perhaps merging to give some longer spells of rain in places. 

Occasional sporadic lightning will be possible, particularly over open waters and adjacent coastal areas, along with hail and locally strong gusts of wind (70-80mph gusts possible over south Cornwall and across to the Channel Islands). Confidence is not high in much of the way of lightning, so the SLGT should be treated as very low-end. Wind profiles suggest a low-topped supercell may be possible, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.