|Convective Outlook: Sat 15 Feb 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 15 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 16 Feb 2020
ISSUED 10:37 UTC Sat 15 Feb 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Several areas of interest in what is a rather complicated setup through Saturday and Saturday night. Broad upper low near Iceland, but with waving frontal boundaries straddling the British Isles. The environment is strongly-sheared throughout the forecast period, and this will allow line convection to develop along the cold front - especially this evening and overnight across parts of England and Wales, but other line segments will be possible across Scotland and Ireland during Saturday. Should the line convection fracture or evolve into an LEWP, perhaps with interaction with local topography, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. In general, weak instability, saturated profiles and the fact that line convection will likely be embedded within a much larger precipitation shield suggests that the risk of lightning is considered pretty low. Nonetheless, some strong gusts of wind may still occur, along with torrential bursts of rain.