|Convective Outlook: Mon 17 Feb 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Feb 2020
ISSUED 21:57 UTC Sun 16 Feb 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Broad upper trough will spread gradually eastwards across the British Isles on Monday, characterised by steep mid-level lapse rates and 300-500 J/kg CAPE over seas. The net result, being within the trough base, is that shear will be weaker than previous days and so the lightning potential will be more strongly related to both instability and any organised features swinging through the in the flow. One such feature, which will still be in the last of the strongly-sheared environment, will be located over SE England and the eastern English Channel first thing on Monday morning, and could produce some hail and strong gusts of wind.