Convective Outlook: Thu 20 Feb 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 20 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 21 Feb 2020
ISSUED 06:46 UTC Thu 20 Feb 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
A sharp upper trough will swing eastwards across the British Isles on Thursday. On its forward side, the trailing cold front (having developed a wave initially) will exhibit a marked temperature gradient and wind veer, with strong low-level shear immediately ahead. As a result, elements of line convection are expected to develop along the front, although the depth of convection (especially compared to many of the recent events during the past month) will be notably shallow - as such, the lightning risk is considered very low. However, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out where line segments fracture, perhaps allowing brief spin-ups. Either way, some squally bursts of rain (including strong straight line winds and small hail) will be possible as the cold front tracks eastwards during daylight hours.