Convective Outlook: Sun 23 Feb 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 23 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 24 Feb 2020

ISSUED 05:58 UTC Sun 23 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Split cold front will slide southeastwards across England and Wales on Sunday morning. A notable mid-level dry intrusion will overspread a shallow moist zone (SMZ), leading to a line of heavy showers - while the convection will likely be fairly shallow (and so the risk of lightning is considered very low), some strong gusts of wind (50-60mph) could occur with the passage of the surface front. Elsewhere, as with previous days numerous showers will affect Scotland, with some sporadic lightning in places - particularly northern and northwestern parts. Hail is likely in many of the showers. However, even here showers will become increasingly isolated through the day as upper ridging develops from the west, ahead of the next Atlantic frontal system.