Convective Outlook: Thu 27 Feb 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Feb 2020

ISSUED 21:34 UTC Wed 26 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Cold pool aloft residing over northern British Isles through much of Thursday and Thursday night will create an environment with steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE. Consequently showers will affect Scotland in particular through most of this forecast period, and could produce a few isolated lightning strikes. As the departing upper trough sharpens over England on Thursday daytime, some weak instability will develop in the post-frontal environment, behind the main surface low. However, most NWP guidance suggests these areas stay dry into the afternoon hours as ridging develops from the west.