Convective Outlook: Sat 29 Feb 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 29 Feb 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 01 Mar 2020

ISSUED 19:48 UTC Fri 28 Feb 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Different areas will have a low risk of lightning at different times through this forecast period, hence the broad LOW threat level. A cold front will clear northwards and eastwards across Scotland and England on Saturday morning, with embedded line convection. Some strong gusts of wind may occur with this feature, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strongly-sheared environment and some marginal instability just ahead of the front. However, this feature is likely to weaken with time.

Elsewhere, cold air aloft overspreading relatively warm SSTs and weak diurnal heating inland (largely offset by cold advection and the strength of the wind) will generate scattered showers across Ireland, Wales and England, these capable of producing some small hail, gusty winds and isolated lightning strikes.

Longer spells of rain and snow will spread across Ireland into western and northern Britain, associated with the wrap-around occlusion - but close to the low centre, showers may produce a few isolated lightning strikes across Connaught and Ulster during the afternoon hours. Overnight, showery rain will tend to break up into showers over northern Scotland and the Northern Isles, and these may also produce the odd isolated lightning strike.