Convective Outlook: Wed 08 Apr 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 08 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 09 Apr 2020

ISSUED 20:19 UTC Tue 07 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Advection of a warm, moist airmass will occur into southern and central Britain on Wednesday, beneath a decaying upper trough. Weak elevated instability will be present initially, riding above the warm nose at ~950mb, with a few high-based showers possible over the English Channel and southern England on Wednesday morning. Surface heating with dewpoints of 11-13C combined with low-level convergence may result in a few isolated, locally heavy showers developing during the late-afternoon to mid-evening period. Given marginal CAPE, weak shear and cloud tops restricted to around 13,000ft (-15C), the risk of lightning is rather low (but non-zero).