Convective Outlook: Thu 23 Apr 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 24 Apr 2020

ISSUED 10:57 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Daytime-heating driven convection over NW France will decay as it drifts towards the Channel Islands on Thursday evening. However, as the upper ridge over the British Isles gradually retreats to the Continent, a PV filament drifting north from France across the English Channel may just provide enough forcing, combined with a moistening of the mid-levels, to enable some elevated convection to occur during the early hours of Friday. The relatively shallow depth of convection and weak CAPE suggests that lightning will be isolated at best, if any at all, despite the presence of a few high-based showers.