Convective Outlook: Fri 24 Apr 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 Apr 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 Apr 2020

ISSUED 18:48 UTC Thu 23 Apr 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Increasing mid-level moisture across the English Channel and SW Britain will bring more in the way of mid-level cloud, and the threat of a few elevated showers over Channel regions first thing on Friday morning. Diurnal heating inland may lead to convective cloud development, especially where low-level convergence aids lift, with a few isolated heavy showers developing - more especially when enhanced by upslope flow over topographical features. Weak mid-level lapse rates, meagre CAPE and somewhat subsided profiles suggests convection will be shallow and lightning is very unlikely (5%).

A slightly higher risk is likely to exist over SW Ireland on Friday afternoon / early evening, where better low-level moisture pooling and greater proximity to an upper vortex just offshore, and associated steeper lapse rates, may result in some slightly deeper convection. Here a risk of local flash flooding will be present, given slow storm motion and prolonged heavy downpours. The risk of lightning is still considered very low (<10%).

A subtle PV max will drift northwards from France on Friday night across the English Channel, and this may maintain a few elevated showers here and over SW Britain.