Convective Outlook: Mon 18 May 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 18 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 19 May 2020

ISSUED 08:22 UTC Mon 18 May 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Diurnal heating of a moist low-level airmass may yield some weak instability, and shallow convection may develop in places on Monday daytime, aided by low-level convergence and orographic forcing. Despite weak CAPE, there is some reasonable speed shear and locally enhanced directional shear, but the shallow nature of convection suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.