Convective Outlook: Fri 29 May 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 29 May 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 30 May 2020
ISSUED 20:07 UTC Thu 28 May 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Substantial upper ridging covers the British Isles on Friday, extending northeastwards towards Scandinavia. Meanwhile a disrupting upper trough over the Atlantic gradually approaches from the west. The net result is a strong southerly flow aloft across Ireland and western Scotland, with heights slowly falling during the forecast period. A plume of relatively high Theta-W will be drawn northwards, just to the west of Ireland, over the Atlantic. Subtle impulses embedded within the strong southerly flow aloft throughout this forecast period may engage with this plume, gradually moistening/cooling the mid-levels to increase mid-level instability, and potentially develop a few elevated showers/thunderstorms in a relatively narrow north-south line.