Convective Outlook: Mon 01 Jun 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 02 Jun 2020
ISSUED 06:34 UTC Mon 01 Jun 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper ridging dominates across southern Britain, but heights will gradually fall across Scotland through Monday as an upper trough approaches from the west. Diurnal heating and slack surface flow will develop areas of low-level convergence, combined with orographic forcing to generate some convective cloud during the afternoon and early evening. Forecast profiles exhibit 100-300 J/kg CAPE and a mid-level cap (~700mb), although this slowly lifts through the day as the upper trough approaches. Convection may be able to grow sufficiently deep, especially late in the day, for a few isolated heavy showers, but given weak shear in the cloud-bearing layer, meagre instability and limited depth, the risk of lightning is considered very low.