Convective Outlook: Sat 06 Jun 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 06 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020
ISSUED 20:48 UTC Fri 05 Jun 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low over the North Sea will gradually slide southwards just offshore during Saturday. Outbreaks of rain associated with the wrap-around occlusion will sink southwards across England and Wales, followed by the upper cold pool which will coincide with diurnal heating to yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE. As a result, a zone of instability will become established across southern portions of northern England into the north Midlands by late morning, shifting gradually southwards across the Midlands and East Anglia during the afternoon and reaching S / SE England towards evening. Several lobes of PVA will be located around the upper low, creating divergence aloft and encouraging broad lift, in conjunction with surface confluence and convergence.