Convective Outlook: Sun 07 Jun 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 08 Jun 2020
ISSUED 07:12 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Positively-tilted upper trough over the North Sea will gradually retreat to the near Continent while weakening on Sunday. Cloud and outbreaks of rain will sink southwards across central and eastern England associated with a frontal zone, but this should start to clear southeastwards as the flow aloft veers more to the NW. Weak elevated instability on the western flank of this zone may allow some heavier bursts of convective rain to develop across the Midlands into East Anglia. Cloud will likely invade southwards across the Midlands and southern England associated with this front, but may thin and break at times to allow sufficient surface heating to occur and potentially yielding 200-400 J/kg CAPE in the best of any sunshine. Given a slacker surface pattern than recent days, a well-marked sea breeze convergence zone is expected to develop along southern coastal counties by midday onwards, and this may be briefly reinforced by a wind-shift line associated with a warm front sinking southwards, before eventually the whole zone is shunted offshore late afternoon / early evening by the increasingly northerly surface flow. A second convergence zone is also expected to develop from NW England through the West Midlands into E / SE Wales during the afternoon hours. Both of these areas will provide the focus for scattered showers developing, drifting southwards at 10-15mph (perhaps more to the SE across Kent / Sussex until the steering flow veers northerly during the evening).