Convective Outlook: Mon 08 Jun 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 08 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 09 Jun 2020

ISSUED 20:24 UTC Sun 07 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough by Monday will now be located from Scandinavia across northern and western mainland Europe, placing the British Isles on the rear side with ridging building from the Atlantic. Consequently, profiles will become subsided from 700mb upwards, meaning any convection that develops will be restricted to tops at 8,000 ft (ELTs -5C). Diurnal heating will likely yield a couple hundred J/kg CAPE across Wales and SW England, which combined with low-level convergence and orographic forcing will aid in the development of scattered showers. However, due to the restricted depth of convection, the risk of lightning is considered very low (5%). Showers will fade through the evening hours as daytime heating subsides, but a few may persist and drift southwards across the English Channel on Monday night.