Convective Outlook: Thu 11 Jun 2020 |
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What do these risk levels mean? |
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 11 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 12 Jun 2020
ISSUED 07:04 UTC Thu 11 Jun 2020
br> br>ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper low will remain centred over the Bay of Biscay during Thursday, with various pulses of showery rain drifting east to west across central and southern Britain. One such feature, associated with a shortwave, will arrive over East Anglia early on Thursday morning, with some embedded elevated convection likely. This will drift westwards across the Midlands and southern England through the day, potentially fragmenting and in doing so allowing cloud breaks to increase insolation. If sufficient surface heating can occur (which is questionable given large amounts of cloud potentially), then 200-400 J/kg CAPE may become available. Low-level confluence along/ahead of the occlusion may then provide the focus for forced ascent to generate deep convection across portions of central southern England, and later southwest England. Cloud tops up to 26,000ft (-40C ELTs) are possible, with modest shear in the low-levels which may increase towards the evening hours.