Convective Outlook: Sat 20 Jun 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 20 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 21 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:49 UTC Sat 20 Jun 2020


A minor shortwave will drift eastwards across England and Wales on Saturday, and may deepen the boundary layer sufficiently to allow a few locally heavy showers to develop in response to diurnal heating. However, given substantial subsidence above 700mb, depth of convection will be restricted and so the risk of lightning is considered very low (5-10%).

Overnight, an active frontal system will sweep eastwards from Ireland into Britain, perhaps containing some embedded line convection - and as such, an isolated lightning strike cannot be ruled out. Later, deeper convection will gradually evolve across Ireland as an upper trough approaches from the Atlantic. However, during this forecast period most convection here will be relatively shallow in height, and so the risk of lightning is still considered fairly low (10%).