Convective Outlook: Mon 29 Jun 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2020

ISSUED 06:42 UTC Mon 29 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low centred over Scotland on Monday morning will gradually exit to the North Sea through the day. The associated cold pool aloft combined with diurnal heating will yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE across eastern Scotland in particular. Convergence and orographic forcing in the slack regime near the surface low centre could allow a few heavy showers to develop, particularly towards midday onwards, with a risk of a few isolated/sporadic lightning strikes - as such, a low-end SLGT (25-30%) has been introduced. The slack low-level regime may be prone to producing a couple of funnel clouds.