Convective Outlook: Tue 30 Jun 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2020

ISSUED 07:12 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2020


Broad upper troughing stretches from southern Scandinavia across Scotland to the Atlantic on Tuesday. Diurnal heating will yield 100-300 J/kg CAPE, with low-level convergence and orographic forcing providing the focus for generating a few scattered heavy showers. Mid-levels are warmer than on Monday, and consequently convection will be much shallower in depth (generally capped below 600mb, ELTs -10C or warmer). As a result, the risk of lightning is considered very low (5-10%). Nonetheless, the moist profile through the cloud-bearing layer and slow movement of showers could lead to some locally high rainfall totals. The slack surface pattern and locally enhanced convergence/vorticity could aid in the development of a couple of funnel clouds.

Farther south, patchy frontal rain will affect southern England at times through this forecast period, with some pockets of weak convection embedded at times. However, the risk of lightning is considered very low.