VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2020

ISSUED 07:12 UTC Tue 30 Jun 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing stretches from southern Scandinavia across Scotland to the Atlantic on Tuesday. Diurnal heating will yield 100-300 J/kg CAPE, with low-level convergence and orographic forcing providing the focus for generating a few scattered heavy showers. Mid-levels are warmer than on Monday, and consequently convection will be much shallower in depth (generally capped below 600mb, ELTs -10C or warmer). As a result, the risk of lightning is considered very low (5-10%). Nonetheless, the moist profile through the cloud-bearing layer and slow movement of showers could lead to some locally high rainfall totals. The slack surface pattern and locally enhanced convergence/vorticity could aid in the development of a couple of funnel clouds.