|Convective Outlook: Wed 01 Jul 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 02 Jul 2020
ISSUED 07:11 UTC Wed 01 Jul 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
A gradually filling upper trough will swing eastwards across southern Ireland on Wednesday, its axis located over the Welsh/English border by 06z Thursday. Cloud breaks will allow pockets of insolation and heating of a moist low-level airmass to yield 100-300 J/kg CAPE, which combined with low-level convergence zones will aid in the development of scattered showers, some heavy. Across England and Wales, a warm nose at ~600mb will act as a mid-level cap, restricting the depth of convection and greatly hindering the potential for lightning. That said, as the upper trough slowly approaches the mid-level warm nose will begin to cool/erode, and it is possible late in the day that one or two showers may be able to grow taller and produce a few isolated lightning strikes - more especially Lincolnshire / Norfolk (15-20%).