Convective Outlook: Thu 02 Jul 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 02 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 03 Jul 2020

ISSUED 06:20 UTC Thu 02 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will migrate eastwards across England on Thursday, clearing to the North Sea by 15z. The associated cold pool aloft combined with diurnal heating will yield 300-700 J/kg CAPE, and numerous showers are likely to develop, particularly where low-level convergence aids in forced ascent. The greatest risk of lightning will be from late morning through to mid-afternoon, primarily over East Anglia and Kent (and surrounding areas), where the position of the upper trough axis will phase best with surface heating. As the upper trough continues to clear to the North Sea through the afternoon, so the depth of convection will tend to become shallower and instability weaker and so there may be a gradual reduction in activity from 3-4pm onwards (if not sooner). As with previous days, the slack surface pattern and locally enhanced convergence/vorticity could aid in the development of a couple of funnel clouds.