Convective Outlook: Sun 05 Jul 2020
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 05 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 06 Jul 2020

ISSUED 06:42 UTC Sun 05 Jul 2020


Upper trough will swing eastward across northern Britain on Sunday, with a strong mid-level jet rounding its southern base. Cold pool aloft will create an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates, which combined with diurnal heating could yield 300-600 J/kg CAPE. Several bands and clusters of showers will spread southeastwards across Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England, some producing a few lightning strikes. Greatest instability will be across eastern Scotland where the cold pool will phase favourably with daytime heating, while conversely the strongest shear will be located farther south around the base of the upper trough - generally southern Scotland southwards, and retreating gradually southwards through the day. Consequently the most organised convection will likely be across southern Scotland into northern England (albeit the vertical wind profile largely unidirectional), aided also by the passage of a shortwave during the afternoon hours. Here, squally winds may accompany the strongest cells, on top of the already strong background wind field. Hail up to 1.5cm in diameter may be possible locally. Showers will weaken in intensity from mid/late evening onwards as the upper trough exits across the North Sea.