Convective Outlook: Mon 13 Jul 2020
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 13 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 14 Jul 2020

ISSUED 07:23 UTC Mon 13 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Outbreaks of rain running eastwards across southern Ireland / Celtic Sea towards SW Wales / SW England on Monday daytime may contain some weak embedded elevated convection. While some heavy bursts of rain will be possible, saturated profiles and meagre CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is rather low.

Otherwise, the main area of interest during this forecast period is E / NE Scotland where should sufficient cloud breaks develop for some surface heating on Monday afternoon, the environment may be supportive for a few heavy showers developing, perhaps moreso as they leave the east coast and drift out to the North Sea. Depth of convection will likely be somewhat limited, and so the risk of lightning is quite low but an odd isolated strike is not ruled out.