Convective Outlook: Wed 29 Jul 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 29 Jul 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 30 Jul 2020

ISSUED 06:25 UTC Wed 29 Jul 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper ridging will generally build across the British Isles on Wednesday, suppressing deep convection. However, later in the day and through Wednesday evening and night, increasing warm advection will occur over many parts of the Britain and Ireland, as a warm front lifts northwards across Ireland. While frontal rain will spread across Ireland and into some western parts of Britain during the evening and night hours, some embedded elevated convection is also likely. Forecast profiles exhibit unstable layers in the mid-levels, although most are generally saturated and/or too warm - and so overall the risk of lightning is considered low, but a few random isolated strikes cannot be ruled out, more especially towards W / SW Ireland. Either way, heavy convective rainfall could lead to some localised surface water flooding.