Convective Outlook: Sun 02 Aug 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 02 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 03 Aug 2020

ISSUED 06:39 UTC Sun 02 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper troughing covers the British Isles on Sunday, the main trough axis clearing to the North Sea early on Sunday morning. Scattered showers will likely develop in response to diurnal heating, particularly focussed along areas of low-level convergence and where orographic forcing can aid ascent. For most places, depth of convection will be reasonably shallow (ELTs between -5C to -10C), suggesting the risk of lightning is very low (5-10%). However, some deeper convection is likely across E / SE Scotland and NE England where steeper mid-level lapse rates also exist, and so here the risk of lightning is considered a little higher (15-20%).