Convective Outlook: Tue 04 Aug 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 04 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 05 Aug 2020

ISSUED 06:51 UTC Tue 04 Aug 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain affecting Scotland, Ireland and northern England through Tuesday may contain some embedded elevated convection at times, although saturated profiles and meagre CAPE suggests the overall risk of lightning in any one location is quite low (5-10%). However, during the early hours of Wednesday a pronounced upper trough and associated PVA / lift on the forward side will engage with the frontal boundary over the Atlantic, causing it to buckle in shape and creating an overlap of cooler, drier air aloft atop warm, moist low-levels. Consequently there is an increasing risk of deep convection and sporadic lightning in the vicinity of SW Ireland later in the night, and as such as SLGT has been introduced. This may persist beyond this forecast period (after 06z Wednesday) across other parts of Ireland. Some hail may be possible, perhaps up to 1.5cm in diameter.