|Convective Outlook: Mon 17 Aug 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 18 Aug 2020
ISSUED 06:43 UTC Mon 17 Aug 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
Upper trough will migrate northwards across Britain and Ireland on Monday, the cold pool aloft serving to increase instability and steepen mid-level lapse rates. Remnants of convective rainfall from Sunday are likely to be affecting parts of northern England, southern Scotland, Ireland and perhaps SW Wales / SW England on Monday morning, and while a few isolated lightning strikes are possible the risk is considered rather low. Through the day, diurnal heating of the residual warm, moist low-level airmass with temperatures in the low 20s Celsius and dewpoints in the mid-high teens Celsius will yield 500-1,000 J/kg CAPE. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to develop across many parts of England and Wales, particularly aided by orographic forcing and low-level convergence zones (such as peninsula convergence). Steering flow will move showers/storms towards the N or NNE initially, but this will veer to the NE by evening.