|Convective Outlook: Thu 27 Aug 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 28 Aug 2020
ISSUED 07:36 UTC Thu 27 Aug 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
An upper trough will slowly migrate eastwards across Britain and Ireland on Thursday, with heights falling aloft through the day as the mid-levels continue to cool. A rather messy pattern is expected, with a complex area of low pressure slowly drifting eastwards while gradually deepening, accompanied by an assortment of occlusions. One such feature will bring pulses of showery rain eastwards across southern Ireland into Wales and SW England, and there could be a slight uptick in some sporadic lightning activity over the open seas and perhaps S Wales / SW England for a time. Depending on how robust any embedded convection can be, strong shear and backed low-level winds suggests the risk of an isolated tornado across southern counties of England this afternoon / evening. Also monitoring parts of SE England into East Anglia during the evening hours where rainfall could intensify to bring a few isolated lightning strikes.