Convective Outlook: Fri 25 Sep 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 25 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sat 26 Sep 2020

ISSUED 07:00 UTC Fri 25 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Longwave upper trough slowly departing to the North Sea, placing the British Isles on the rear side with heights slowly rising through Friday and Friday night. However, cold pool atop warm seas will maintain convection over open waters, and these showers will drift inland on the northwesterly steering winds, with persistent frontal rain (and perhaps embedded convection) affecting eastern England. The overall environment is less-conducive for lightning than on Thursday, so any strikes are likely to be fairly isolated and not as widespread as yesterday. Hail is likely in some of the showers, with wind gusts in excess of 40mph locally (much stronger gusts are expected in eastern England given stronger background wind field).