Convective Outlook: Wed 30 Sep 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 30 Sep 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 01 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:27 UTC Wed 30 Sep 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A band of rain spreading eastwards, and preceded and followed by showers, could produce a few isolated lightning strikes - but the risk is considered quite low in any one location, with most areas remaining void of lightning activity. Deeper convection will spread into western Ireland and SW England overnight, and here the risk of lightning is higher (10-15%) accompanied by gusty winds and hail. Given strong shear and modest CAPE, some line convection is possible on Wednesday evening over East Anglia and SE England, capable of producing locally squally winds - and an isolated tornado is not ruled out.