|Convective Outlook: Tue 06 Oct 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 06 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 07 Oct 2020
ISSUED 07:15 UTC Tue 06 Oct 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
As an upper cold pool swings southeastwards across the British Isles, beneath a broad upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating will aid a few hundred J/kg CAPE during Tuesday, with a greater potential for some sporadic lightning and hail from heavy showers. The greatest risk will be during the afternoon across the Midlands and East Anglia (15-20% chance), where 20-30kts DLS may aid in organisation a little. Showers will gradually ease from the west through the evening and night as warming aloft reduces instability.