Convective Outlook: Tue 06 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 06 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 07 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:15 UTC Tue 06 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

As an upper cold pool swings southeastwards across the British Isles, beneath a broad upper trough, steep mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating will aid a few hundred J/kg CAPE during Tuesday, with a greater potential for some sporadic lightning and hail from heavy showers. The greatest risk will be during the afternoon across the Midlands and East Anglia (15-20% chance), where 20-30kts DLS may aid in organisation a little. Showers will gradually ease from the west through the evening and night as warming aloft reduces instability.