Convective Outlook: Thu 08 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 08 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 09 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:11 UTC Thu 08 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

On Thursday evening and night, an upper trough will slide southeastwards across the northern half of the British Isles, accompanied by a cold pool aloft which will initially slide eastwards across northern Scotland during Thursday daytime, and then pivot southeast through the evening and night to cover a much larger area. This will create an environment with increasingly steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE in response to relatively warm SSTs. As such, the deepest convection may produce a few lightning strikes - more especially across western Scotland - but frequency and coverage of any lightning is deemed too low to require a SLGT at this stage. Hail is likely in many of the showers, some accompanied by wind gusts of 40-50mph.