Convective Outlook: Mon 12 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 12 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 13 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:05 UTC Mon 12 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low, and associated cold pool, will slide southwards while intensifying through Monday afternoon across western Scotland, and then across Ireland, the Irish Sea and western England into Wales on Monday night. Steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE could allow a few isolated lightning strikes to occur, especially offshore/close to coasts. Some intensification of frontal rain across SE England is also possible on Monday night as a low centre begins to develop, and convergence becomes maximised through the Strait of Dover. Instability is weaker here, but the odd isolated lightning strike is not ruled out.