Convective Outlook: Tue 13 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 13 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Wed 14 Oct 2020

ISSUED 06:27 UTC Tue 13 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper low and associated cold pool located over the Irish Sea and Wales at 06z Tuesday will continue to slide southwards across SW England and the English Channel through the day. This will bring the opportunity for deep convection and scattered showers, and given a few hundred J/kg CAPE and steep mid-level lapse rates a few isolated lightning strikes will also be possible. Deep convection should ease into northern France by the evening hours, although further heavy showers will remain possible over the English Channel overnight, and late in the night along some North Sea coasts.