Convective Outlook: Sun 25 Oct 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 25 Oct 2020 - 05:59 UTC Mon 26 Oct 2020

ISSUED 07:55 UTC Sun 25 Oct 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A large upper low will extend eastwards across the British Isles, the substantial cold pool aloft atop relatively warm SSTs generating several hundred J/kg CAPE. Numerous showers will develop over seas and push inland on the west or southwesterly steering winds, and so southern and western coasts are most prone to showers where the risk of lightning will be greatest. A few low-end SLGTs (25-30% chance) have been issued to highlight this risk. However, showers will survive well-inland with others developing inland in response to diurnal heating during Sunday daytime, so even areas inland will have a risk of a few isolated lightning strikes. Hail is likely in many of the showers, with some gusty winds. Parts of NE Scotland and eastern England may see very few showers. Showers will persist in many of the same areas through Sunday night, although becoming less-widespread further inland.