Convective Outlook: Mon 09 Nov 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 09 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Tue 10 Nov 2020

ISSUED 09:13 UTC Mon 09 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

A weakening upper trough will slowly lift northeastwards across the British Isles on Monday, with a series of occlusions and shortwaves migrating northwards in a rather slack pattern overall. Forecast profiles are rather moist through most of the column, implying fairly extensive cloud and potential for showery outbreaks of rain courtesy of elevated convection. Some scope may exist for surface-based convection to also develop, but in either case the saturated profiles and limited CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is considered rather low overall (10-15% chance), although a few sporadic strikes will be possible from the most intense cells.