Convective Outlook: Wed 11 Nov 2020
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 11 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Thu 12 Nov 2020

ISSUED 13:55 UTC Wed 11 Nov 2020


UPDATE 13:55 UTC LOW extended across parts of East Anglia and SE England where line convection may increase later in the night

A cold front will swing eastwards across Ireland on Wednesday daytime, pushing into western Britain during the evening and night. Given a marked wind veer and strongly-sheared environment, line convection seems likely, especially towards Wales and SW England but also in other segments along the cold front farther north. The shallow nature of such embedded  convection coupled with limited CAPE suggests the risk of lightning is rather low in any given location, with the greatest risk (10-15%) probably around the Bristol Channel and adjacent land areas either side during the evening hours. Squally winds will be possible in places, especially SW England and south and west Wales, where an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Line convection is expected to weaken towards midnight as the front continues to drift eastwards across Britain.