|Convective Outlook: Thu 12 Nov 2020|
|What do these risk levels mean?|
VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 Nov 2020
ISSUED 10:31 UTC Thu 12 Nov 2020br> br>
ISSUED BY: Dan
A cold front will move across Ireland during Thursday evening, into Britain on Thursday night, with embedded line segments likely at times. Forecast profiles suggest the convection will be slightly deeper than the Wednesday evening/night event, but given limited CAPE the risk of lightning is still considered rather low in most places (5-10%). Nonetheless, squally winds and perhaps an isolated tornado will be possible. Behind the front, cold air aloft will overspread relatively warm SSTs, increasing instability and bringing a scattering of showers into Ireland and later western Scotland. A few isolated lightning strikes could occur in these areas during the early hours of Friday (10-15% chance).