Convective Outlook: Sat 14 Nov 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 14 Nov 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 15 Nov 2020

ISSUED 09:50 UTC Sat 14 Nov 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

As an upper trough migrates northeastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, pulses of showery rain with embedded elevated convection will also move northeastwards at times, posing the risk of isolated lightning strikes (5-10% chance). Some deeper convection may develop across parts of Ireland on Saturday afternoon, running into W / SW Scotland by the evening, beneath the main trough axis - and here the chance of lightning will be higher (10-15%). Further showers and longer spells of rain are likely overnight, especially in southern and western areas, with an ongoing low risk of lightning - particular attention is given to the Channel Islands and Irish Sea. Given the increasing shear, some line segments will be possible at times.