Convective Outlook: Thu 03 Dec 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 03 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Fri 04 Dec 2020

ISSUED 08:19 UTC Thu 03 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough and associated cold pool extends across the British Isles on Thursday, creating an environment with reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. A messy pattern of dynamic and convective rainfall is expected, with the bulk of the deep convection (and greatest risk of a few lightning strikes) most favoured towards western coasts, and through the English Channel (including the south coast of England). Initially, the main focus is western Scotland, but by Thursday evening and night this may shift to west Wales and SW England, along with W Ireland and parts of the English Channel.