Convective Outlook: Sat 05 Dec 2020

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 05 Dec 2020 - 05:59 UTC Sun 06 Dec 2020

ISSUED 07:55 UTC Sat 05 Dec 2020

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough and associated cold pool covers the British Isles on Saturday, and so given steep mid-level lapse rates and a few hundred J/kg CAPE near coastal areas theoretically a few sporadic lightning strikes could occur just about anywhere - but the vast majority of areas will remain lightning-free. The greatest risk appears to be Dorset - Channel Islands - Cornwall, associated with the wrap-around occlusion, and also eastern Scotland, but in both cases the risk slowly diminishes through the day. There may be scope for a couple of waterspouts where surface winds are fairly slack, more especially west Wales and also near the surface low centre over the English Channel.