Convective Outlook: Tue 02 Feb 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 02 Feb 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 03 Feb 2021

ISSUED 07:54 UTC Tue 02 Feb 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Frontal rain and snow will continue to slowly lift northeastwards through Tuesday, with some clearance developing between the initial occlusion over northern England, and a secondary occlusion arriving into Wales / SW England during the afternoon. Depending on breaks in the cloud, some scope may exist for some land-based convection to develop across parts of the Midlands and southern England, this shifting northeastwards towards SE England, East Anglia and perhaps northern England with time. Dewpoints of 9-10C are expected to cover southern Britain (much lower farther north), with potential for a couple of hundred J/kg CAPE to evolve depending on sufficient (weak) surface heating. Convective depth is likely to be restricted in height somewhat, with ELTs around -20C, but shear may be enough to compensate to aid some organisation (possibly low-topped supercell) and bring the risk of a few isolated lightning strikes. Much of this will depend on sufficient cloud breaks, however. Towards the end of the night (Wednesday morning) there may be a slightly increased chance of lightning near the Channel Islands.