Convective Outlook: Wed 31 Mar 2021
LOW
SLGT
MDT
HIGH
SVR
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 31 Mar 2021 - 05:59 UTC Thu 01 Apr 2021

ISSUED 06:45 UTC Wed 31 Mar 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

Elevated convection atop an EML (elevated mixed layer) will be possible at times through Wednesday and Wednesday night across parts of England and Wales, however much of any rain will probably evaporate in the dry near-surface layers and the overall depth of convection will probably quite shallow - and so the risk of lightning is considered very low. Diurnal heating will likely yield some substantial SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/kg CAPE in places, but forecast profiles are both very dry and also largely capped due to the EML present and so the risk of any significant surface-based convection developing is very low.

Some high-resolution modelling suggests the potential for isolated heavy showers/thunderstorms developing over northern and eastern England due to sufficient convergence and moisture pooling along a boundary surging southwards during the evening hours (winds will increase markedly behind this feature). The window for surface-based convection will be rather narrow, as such convection will be quickly undercut by cool surface air, although mid-level convection may still be possible.