Convective Outlook: Sun 04 Apr 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 04 Apr 2021 - 05:59 UTC Mon 05 Apr 2021

ISSUED 19:04 UTC Sat 03 Apr 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold front will slide southwards across Scotland during Sunday daytime, reaching southern counties of England by 06z Monday. This will be followed by a potent Arctic airmass, racing southwards, atop relatively warm SSTs. As such, numerous showers will develop over open seas through Sunday night in an environment yielding up to 500 J/kg CAPE, particularly frequent along exposed northern and western coasts of Scotland (including the Northern Isles and Hebrides) - but moving well-inland due to the strong steering flow. Much of this convection will tend to be somewhat shallow in depth, with the deepest convection typically over the northern North Sea and towards Shetland - and this will be the area most likely to produce some sporadic lightning, especially just east of Shetland towards the end of the night. Showers will produce snow (and small hail) to sea level, with squally winds also likely in an already strong background wind field.