Convective Outlook: Tue 06 Apr 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 06 Apr 2021 - 05:59 UTC Wed 07 Apr 2021

ISSUED 05:51 UTC Tue 06 Apr 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

A cold northwesterly flow persists across the British Isles on Tuesday, with numerous showers once again affecting exposed coastal areas, fuelled by the relatively warm seas, these moving well-inland due to the strong steering flow but also maintained somewhat by diurnal heating. The main difference with Monday is a subtle shortwave trough will slide southwards coinciding with diurnal heating and aiding in both deepening and moistening the convective layer over inland parts of England and Wales. This should allow some deeper convection to evolve (compared with Monday) and a scattering of showers to develop during the afternoon and evening hours, moving southeastwards and gradually decaying later in the evening as they clear southern England. In any case, convection once again today looks relatively shallow/limited in depth, and so the risk of lightning is considered very low in any one location - perhaps greatest over the North Sea close to the coast of East Anglia.