Convective Outlook: Sat 10 Apr 2021

LOW SLGT MDT HIGH SVR

What do these risk levels mean?

Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 10 Apr 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 11 Apr 2021

ISSUED 06:28 UTC Sat 10 Apr 2021

ISSUED BY: Dan

An upper trough will migrate slowly southeastwards across the British Isles on Saturday. Cold air aloft atop SSTs and diurnal heating inland will generate numerous showers, especially enhanced by low-level wind convergence. The risk of lightning in any one location is very low (5%) with the best potential most likely over Ireland (10%) where greater instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates will exist due to more ideal overlapping of the upper trough axis with diurnal heating. However weak shear will result in rather pulse-type convection. Nonetheless, hail is likely in several showers.