Convective Outlook: Mon 03 May 2021
What do these risk levels mean?
Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 03 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Tue 04 May 2021

ISSUED 07:14 UTC Mon 03 May 2021


A deep but slowly filling surface low will slide eastwards across the northern portions of Ireland during Monday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the low centre, a shield of frontal precipitation will affect many parts of the UK/Ireland during daylight hours, clearing Northern Ireland by early afternoon. This provides a window of just a few hours, before the wrap-around occlusion quickly returns from the west, with cloud clearance and surface heating for deep convection to develop over parts of Northern Ireland (and later NW England), perhaps also feeding into SW Scotland - with additional forcing from the leading edge of a marked dry intrusion aloft. If sufficient surface heating occurs and deep convection is able to develop, the strongly-sheared environment will likely aid updraft/downdraft separation and pose the threat of 50-55mph gusts and hail. Confidence is not particularly high, not least over how deep/shallow convection may be, and so have hesitantly issued a low-end SLGT.

Some line segments will also be possible along the cold front during the afternoon and evening hours, from Ireland into western Britain, capable of producing squally winds with additional development over parts of the Midlands and eastern England later in the day perhaps - although the risk of lightning with these features is fairly low. Overnight, deep convection/heavy showers will develop near northern and western Scotland into northwest Ireland as a cold airmass returns from the north once again, overspreading SSTs.