Convective Outlook: Sat 08 May 2021
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Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 08 May 2021 - 05:59 UTC Sun 09 May 2021

ISSUED 07:29 UTC Sat 08 May 2021


Late on Saturday night, warm advection from France towards SE England will occur within a strong southwesterly flow regime on the forward side of a large upper trough. Forecast profiles exhibit warming in the ~800mb layer with moistening around ~700mb. The net result is increasing mid-level instability and the chance of elevated convection developing over the English Channel and NE France, running NE-wards into Sunday morning (continuing beyond the end of this forecast period). Guidance varies in the coverage of precipitation, in part due to much of it evaporating in dry near-surface layers, but the general consensus is most lightning activity will probably remain over NE France/BeNeLux and the southern North Sea where the main Theta-E / Theta-W plume exists. That said, some lightning activity could occur over parts of SE England / East Anglia (especially Kent), but confidence is lower here and so have refrained from introducing a SLGT at this stage. 

Elsewhere, in Ireland relatively shallow convection will develop on Saturday afternoon/evening in northern areas, and then overnight in western areas within a strongly-sheared environment - gusty winds may occur, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. On Saturday evening/night elevated convection/showers will also drift into western Scotland.